Analysis: Will Champions Trophy suffer from chill in ties? – Newspaper

• Indian press, pundits call on New Delhi to reciprocate Pakistan team’s World Cup visit
• BCCI pullout will take a financial toll on approx. $3bn broadcasting rights deal, pull revenue away from ICC
• Despite Nawaz’s overtures, ex-Indian diplomat believes gradual steps should come before ‘cricket diplomacy’

AS the Champions Trophy embarks on a multi-city tour of Pakistan, the fate of the tournament it is supposed to precede remains subject to a political standoff between Islamabad and New Delhi.

For a few glorious days, cricket fans in the subcontinent — and further afield — had rejoiced at the prospect of an India-Pakistan showdown at the Gaddafi Stadium.

If it came to pass, this would’ve been the first time since the Asia Cup of 2008 that the men in blue would’ve crossed the border to play their arch-rivals on Pakistani soil.

Then, last week, India threw a spanner in the works by refusing to send its team to Lahore, insisting instead on the ‘hybrid model’ that has been employed in the past, with the UAE being offered as an alternative ‘neutral’ venue.

Pakistan, as the host of an eight-nation showpiece ICC event, is understandably displeased; its Foreign Office telling New Delhi that “sports should not be politicised”.

PCB chief Mohsin Naqvi has already stated that if India doesn’t cross the border, it shouldn’t expect Pakis­tan to do the same the next time it hosts an ICC event.

Even former prime minister Nawaz Sharif — known to have a soft spot for cricket — has called on the Indians to abandon their posturing and send their team to Lahore.

There are also voices in India that advocate for continued sporting ties, especially given that Pakistan sent its team to India for the last ODI World Cup.

In a recent conversation with The Hindu, former Davis Cup side manager Sunil Yajaman said: “Somewhere we have to keep some ties going and sport has to be above politics.”

Even the US State Dept seemed to back the sporting connection, with spokesperson Vedant Patel saying at a recent briefing that “sports connects so many people, and it’s a great way for those human-to-human and people-to-people ties”.

More than ‘just cricket’

But the sporting rivalry between India and Pakistan is never just about the cricket. In fact, if history has taught us anything, it is that cricket is usually the first casualty whenever ties between the two capitals become frosty.

This has been the case ever since 2019 — the year of the Pulwama attack, an Indian aerial incursion into Pakistan that led to the shooting down and subsequent return of the pilot Abhinandan Varthaman, and the abrogation of India-held Kashmir’s special status. That year marked a low point in ties between the two neighbours.

More recently, New Delhi has blamed Pakistan for an uptick in what it calls ‘terrorist attacks’ in the held territory, especially around last month’s elections for the state assembly.

Ajay Bisaria, a former high commissioner to Pakistan, noted that for New Delhi, terrorism in India-held Kashmir remained a critical sticking point. “The optics of playing cricket in Pakistan while terror incidents are ongoing is very negative.”

But in an op-ed for the Indian Express, former Vajpayee adviser Sudheendra Kulkarni recalls how India continued to play Pakistan from the 1970s to the 2000s, despite several ups and downs in their political relationship. The two nations even acted as co-hosts for the 1987 and 1996 World Cups.

However, those governments, led by the likes of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, were less hardline and more open to sporting logic than the current Narendra Modi regime.

It also does not help that the man currently in charge of Indian cricket is also the ICC’s heir apparent.

Jay Shah, being the son of the Indian prime minister’s right-hand man Amit Shah, is fully entrenched with the Modi administration and will toe the government’s line under any circumstances.

Simon Hughes, a sports writer, notes in his Substack column that India’s decision not to go to Pakistan reflects “Shah telling himself” not to allow India’s participation in Pakistan-hosted events.

Blow for fans

India’s decision to effectively pull out of the tournament is causing considerable consternation for everyone involved. Chiefly, the substantial financial stakes complicate the issue, as India’s withdrawal would threaten the ICC’s lucrative broadcasting agreement with Disney Hotstar, reportedly valued at $3 billion.

If this happens, Shah can also argue that a tournament without India will hurt the pockets of cricket’s governing body, as their withdrawal will see a sizeable chunk of that money going away from the ICC.

One of the proposals reportedly under discussion to salvage the situation includes India agreeing to participate in one of its three group-stage matches — the big one against Pakistan — in Lahore while playing its two other games in the UAE.

If they reach the semis, they will play in the UAE, but will have to play the final — should they get that far — in Pakistan. In return, the PCB will get an increased share of the revenue from the tournament as part of compensation for the losses due to India not playing in Pakistan.

Former England captain Michael Vaughan believes India’s decision will affect relations within the cricketing world. “I do think by India not going to Pakistan for the Champions Trophy, I think that relationship now could be an off-image… it has not been great for a long time, and I think it is going to get worse,” he remarked recently on the Club Prairie Fire Podcast.

The decision, he argued, threatens the prospects of an India-Pakistan match in the foreseeable future, depriving fans worldwide of one of cricket’s most thrilling rivalries.

“In all this subcontinental frost, it is sad that star players, including Virat Kohli, have not played a single Test against Pakistan, a statistic that seems set to remain that way,” The Hindu noted in an editorial last week.

Nawaz’s overtures

Former premier Nawaz Sharif, who has consistently advocated for improved India-Pakistan relations, has publicly lamented New Delhi’s stance.

Speaking in London, he emphasised cricket’s unique power to foster diplomatic progress, saying that an Indian visit to Pakistan could improve relations and expressed disappointment that such an opportunity for bridge-building has once again been missed.

Then, in a recent interview with Dawn, the former prime minister reiterated that while there would be a time to talk about more difficult issues, India should send its team to play the Champions Trophy.

“If it was a situation where Pakistan had to play in India, I’m in favour that Pakistan should be the first team to go to India. The Indian team should visit Pakistan, so the environment improves,” he noted.

Given that his party is currently in power, and his younger brother the incumbent prime minister, Sharif’s words carry considerable weight. But does he have enough clout to sway the other side?

According to Bisaria, the former diplomat, “The worry in India is that Nawaz Sharif does not represent Pakistan’s policy towards India and continues to be overruled, as he was in the past, by the army establishment.”

In his view, gradual steps — like exchanging high commissioners and starting trade — should be prioritised over immediate cricket diplomacy.

“India’s policy now is summed up by what [foreign minister] Jaishankar said a while ago — India will not be passive… if there are positive developments, then India will respond positively,” he said, stressing that steps toward normalisation need to be gradual.

However, he emphasises that at the moment, the threats in held Kashmir are a “dealbreaker” for any kind of friendly overture.

Not ‘the end’

While cross-border interactions do continue in other, less visible avenues, cricket is just too big in both countries for it to be divorced from political realities. Renowned Indian cricket writer and journalist Pradeep Magazine believes only a “political breakthrough” will see India play in Pakistan.

“India has sent other teams to Pakistan, the Kabbadi team and the Davis Cup [tennis] team but cricket is so big in the country that it becomes a political issue,” Magazine told Dawn. “And with the stance the incumbent hardline government has adopted, it wouldn’t want to do this.

He, however, doesn’t believe that India’s refusal to come to Pakistan will be the end-all for cricket between the two rivals.

“It will depend on how much clout Pakistan has in the ICC [to force India to cross the border]. India is willing to play Pakistan on a neutral venue … the bone of contention is that it doesn’t want to play in Pakistan. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pakistan agree to holding India’s matches [of the Champions Trophy] in the UAE.”

Published in Dawn, November 18th, 2024